Optronic Laboratories : Light Measurement Experts

While Ohr noted that some analysts and the TV manufacturers are predicting 50% market penetration in 2010, he takes a much more conservative view. Ohr sees 50% penetration by 2013, but notes that bearish outlook still results in a $2 billion white LED opportunity in 2013

Ohr isn’t alone questioning some of the bullish forecasts. Strategies Unlimited’s Bob Steele also questioned some of the high market projections two weeks ago at the Strategies in Light conference. In his annual market forecast presentation, Steele noted that some analysts are projecting that 39 million LED-based TVs will ship in 2010 while he believes 22 million is a more reasonable projection.

Despite his analysis of the financials and questions about the advantages of LEDs in edge-lit configurations, Ohr said signs are pointing potentially to a more rapid adoption of LEDs. He stated, “Promotion of LED backlights may result in high consumer acceptance despite the higher price.”

Ohr also noted that there are signs in the semiconductor space that those companies see a more rapid transition than most expected previously. He noted that NXP had discontinued development of a new fluorescent driver IC. And he displayed a slide of a Marvell fluorescent driver data sheet with discontinued stamped across the sheet.

Ohr concluded stating, “We need $0.05 by 2013.” He questions whether the LED industry can deliver components at that price both because of the manufacturing and packaging cost, and the need to test and bin the products for intensity and color.

Drawing on results and trends revealed through the latest rounds of DOE CALiPER testing, the speakers will discuss the advantages, disadvantages, and economics of using LEDs in office settings.

The Webcast will begin promptly at 1:00 pm ET and will include a 60-minute presentation, followed by a 30-minute question and answer session with attendees.
Manufacturing R&D Workshop

The next DOE SSL Manufacturing R&D Workshop takes place on April 21–22, 2010 in San Jose, California.

Last year, DOE launched a new solid-state lighting (SSL) manufacturing R&D initiative, designed to enhance the quality and lower the cost of SSL products through improvements in manufacturing equipment and processes.

More than 350 industry stakeholders—chip makers, fixture manufacturers, component manufacturers, and other lighting experts—joined DOE at two workshops to build a roadmap for SSL manufacturing in the U.S.

Participants at the April 21–22 workshop in San Jose, CA will be able to:

• Share updates on technology progress and trends
• Learn about the first round of DOE-funded manufacturing projects
• Re-examine roadmap priority topics, and propose changes or updates
• Learn more about federal funding opportunities, and network with our nation’s leading lighting experts.

Strategies in Light 2010 included a separate lighting track to meet the information needs of lighting designers, specifiers, architects and luminaire manufacturers. This track focused on the many issues associated with the use of LEDs in lighting that are of concern to the lighting community. Through real-world examples and frank discussions of the do’s and don’ts of LED lighting, attendees gained a better understanding of the realities of LED lighting, now and in the future. Included in the lighting track was a “truth in labeling” session and panel discussion that addressed current questions and concerns regarding the manner in which LED lighting products are marketed and sold.

In conjunction with the lighting track, the conference offered two tutorials on LEDs, including LED Fundamentals for Lighting Designers and Architects and Specifying LED Lighting Fixtures: What Lighting Designers and Specifiers Need to Know. These tutorials were in addition to pre-conference workshops on designing for LED luminaire reliability, intellectual property, quality of light for LEDs, and selecting drivers for LEDs.

A new Solid-State Lighting Investor Forum for venture capitalists and investment bankers, which was added to the pre-conference schedule, debuted to a sold-out, standing-room-only audience. This afforded a unique opportunity for investors to hear presentations from 12 by-invitation-only start-up companies that represent broad sectors of the SSL space. It also included a panel discussion of leading VCs well experienced in the SSL sector. Christine Shaw, Senior Vice President of PennWell’s LED & Lighting Media Group including LEDs Magazine, Strategies in Light Events, and Strategies Unlimited Market Research attributed the event’s explosive growth due to the consistent quality of the content as well as leveraging the unique strength of the LED & Lighting Media Group’s print and digital magazines, online communities, market research and related events within the LED and lighting industry. “We anticipate this positive momentum to continue and look forward to our next Strategies in Light HB LED and lighting events in Japan and Europe in September 2010 as well as next year’s 2011 event when we return to Santa Clara.”

Strategies in Light 2010 provided insight into the rapidly developing markets for LED lighting, backlights for LCD displays, and other major trends in applications, industry structure, government policies, markets, products, and technologies that will affect the industry’s future. Featured speakers for the conference’s HB LED market track included: Derry Berrigan, Principal, DBLD Sustainable Lighting Design; James Brodrick, Lighting Program Manager, US Department of Energy; and Cary Eskow, Director, Avnet LightSpeed. In addition, Robert Steele, Conference Chair and Director of Optoelectronics Programs, Strategies Unlimited, provided his annual update on the market for HB LEDs, along with a five-year forecast.

Other companies and organizations contributing to the HB LED market track included Canaccord Adams, CH2M Hill, Philips Lumileds Lighting, Cree, Nichia America, Osram Opto Semiconductors, Telelumen LLC, Lynk Labs Inc., mSilica, Oree, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Inventronics, Carclo Technical Plastics, QD Vision, Inc., Bayer Material Science, GrafTech International, and Op-Test.

The featured speaker for the lighting track was Ted Konnerth, President and CEO, Egret Consulting Group, Vindra Bhandarkar, SIL Conference Co-chair and Senior Market Research Analyst at Strategies Unlimited summarized the results of the company’s latest market research on solid-state lighting luminaire market trends. Other participating companies and organizations included D&R International; Lightswitch Architectural; Bureau of Consumer Protection at the Federal Trade Commission; Canlyte Philips; Department of Transportation for City of San Jose; Johnson Controls; Gabriel Mackinnon Lighting Design; Luminae Souter Associates, LLC; Bergen School of Architecture; and Philips Lumileds Lighting.

Next year, Strategies in Light will be held February 23-25, 2011 in Santa Clara. For further information on Strategies in Light, please contact Luba Hrynyk at lubah@pennwell.com, or visit us online at: www.strategiesinlight.com.

LED Japan/Strategies in Light attracted over 5,300 registrants in 2009.

Strategies in Light Europe will debut this year in Frankfurt Germany, September 27-29, 2010.

Because of the shared concern for high levels of performance and SSL consumer market acceptance, representatives from the US Department of Energy are actively participating in NEMA’s working group devoted to this subject.

“In making these recommendations, our goal is to improve performance and to increase consumer satisfaction of SSL retrofit products in the large installed base of Edison sockets,” said Robert Hick of Leviton Manufacturing, and chair of the section. “Achieving these goals will further market acceptance of SSL products and encourage demand for new SSL product designs. Both interchangeability and harmonization tend to increase market acceptance while decreasing costs, benefiting manufacturers and consumers.”

Other white papers in the NEMA LSD series cover a range of lighting topics such as ballast disconnects, occupancy sensors, and photoluminescent exit signage.

The multi-faceted reports begins with an examination of lighting inventory and lumen demand. It continues with a look at the installed base and the technology improvements in conventional light sources.

The LED-centric content examines the improvements and cost savings expected in SSL over two decades. For instance, the report projects efficacy improvements. In high CRI (76-90) SSL lights, the DOE expects efficacy to go from 64.3 lm/W today to 147.3 lm/W in 2020 and to 176.3 lm/W in 2030.

From a cost perspective, the DOE projects SSL to go from $169.49 per klm today to $5.03 per klm by 2030 for high CRI products. The report makes projections for other CRI ranges and for OLED lighting as well.

The latter portion of the report focuses on projected market penetration and energy savings calculations. The analysis attempts to take a balanced view on the gradual replacement of technologies such as fluorescent with SSL alternatives.

The conclusion as stated up front is certainly impressive. The DOE expects SSL to completely displace all other technologies in commercial, residential, industrial and outdoor segments by 2030. The projected savings, however, come primarily from the replacement of fluorescent and halogen lamps in the commercial sector.

The DOE report claims SSL can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 246 million metric tons of carbon over two decades. The full report is available on the DOE SSL web site.

Canaccord Adams LED supply projection

The first cycle for HB LEDs began with mobile handsets in the early 200s according to Dorsheimer. First the LEDs were used to illuminate keypads and later to backlight color screens. That led to a surge in LED manufacturing and over capacity by the 2004/2005 time frame.

Still the LED performance improvements and declining prices driven by the first cycle enabled the backlight market cycle that was started by Apple with the Macbook Pro and is now driven by TVs. Based on the ramping TV market, Dorsheimer believes the LED manufacturing industry needs to add 515 to 780 more MOCVD reactors through 2012. And independent of the tools, Dorsheimer believes a sapphire shortage could still impede adequate supply.

So what happens beyond 2012? Dorsheimer believes current trends will lead to a 30% overbuild for the TV market. That will yield a surplus of as many as 60 billion LEDs, and what Dorsheimer calls a “one to two year digestion period” in the 2014 to 2016 time frame with little capacity growth. Once again the price declines and performance gains made in LEDs will help enable the third cycle driven by lighting.

Canaccord Adams LED residential payback

Dorsheimer also discussed obstacles to LED adoption in the lighting space. He points out that the actual cost of the LEDs remains significantly too high. In current LED-based replacement bulbs, Dorsheimer claims that LEDs account for as much as 40% of the bill of materials (BOM), and that’s despite the fact that the bulbs require a power converter printed circuit board and robust heat sink.

Today, Dorsheimer estimates the LED portion of the BOM at $25. He believes that number needs to drop to $4 to enable a $10 retail price for a 1000 lm bulb. The cost is critical because in residential applications Dorsheimer estimates the current payback time for an LED bulb to be 11 years relative to a CFL bulb.

Dorsheimer also discussed how the industry might get to lower prices. He sees a move to larger wafers as key. He predicts a move from 2-inch wafer to 4- or 6-inch wafers because the larger wafers offer better thermal stability and ultimately better yield. Dorsheimer stated, “Yield trumps all in this industry.”

Canaccord will offer more details on the third cycle later this year. Dorsheimer believes that lighting could consume more than 100 billion additional LEDs by 2020.