Optronic Laboratories : Light Measurement Experts

FIG. 1.

The cumulative energy-savings potential from the predicted LED market penetration over the 2010-2030 study period is 2700 TWh, a savings of $250 billion at today?s energy prices or the equivalent of 1800 million metric tons of carbon. This is in comparison to the 1800 TWh of savings estimated in the?2010 report of energy-savings potential. However, several significant changes were made to the study?s methodology and assumptions for the latest report, which are discussed below.The forecast predicts that by 2020, LED lamps and luminaires will have primarily penetrated the commercial and outdoor stationary applications. Proliferation into residential, industrial, commercial and outdoor stationary markets will occur in the 2020-2030 timeframe.

The forecast projects LED lamp and luminaire sales measured in lumen-hours. The analysis indicates that LED lighting in general illumination applications has the potential to represent 36% of sales measured in lumen-hours on the general illumination market by 2020 and 74% of sales by 2030.

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US consumed 694 TWh of site electricity in 2010 on lighting – approximately 18% of all electricity used. The model demonstrates the total energy consumption for lighting could be reduced by 19% by 2020 and by 46% by 2030 relative to a scenario with no additional LED lamps or luminaires beyond what is installed today (baseline curve in Fig. 1).

By 2030, the annual energy savings from market penetration of LEDs will be approximately 297 TWh, enough electricity to power 24 million homes. At current energy prices, that equates to $30 billion in savings in the year 2030. Assuming the same mix of power stations, these savings, according to the report, would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 210 million metric tons of carbon in 2030.

New, improved study

The DOE has published this report four times, in 2001, 2003, 2006 and 2010. Several important changes to the 2010 methodology have been implemented. First, the 2010 baseline data now uses the DOE?s recently published?2010 US Lighting Market Characterization (2010 LMC) inventory report. That report showed that 67 million LED lamps and luminaires were installed in the US in 2010, accounting for 0.8% of the total.

FIG. 2.

Secondly, the energy-savings report only considers LED technology and not OLEDs, due to the speculative nature of efficacy projections and price forecasts for OLED luminaires. All energy savings are assumed to be due to LED technology and its improvements.The model includes lighting in residential, commercial, industrial and outdoor stationary applications. The previous reports then grouped lamps by high- and low-CRI application. Now the lamps are grouped by submarket in which different technologies compete, including five categories: general service lamps (medium screw base), reflector lamps (screw base), HID, linear fluorescent and miscellaneous.

Performance, price, lifetime targets

An econometric model used in the analysis relies on assumptions of efficacy, retail price and operating life. These estimates were based on work conducted collaboratively by the DOE and industry experts, including members of the Next Generation Lighting Industry Alliance, an SSL technical working group managed by the National Electrical Manufacturers Association.

LED performance assumptions are based on the DOE?s SSL R&D multiyear program plan (MYPP) and its SSL R&D manufacturing roadmap through 2020. Values for 2030 were extrapolated based on the prevailing trend. LED lamps and luminaires were modeled separately, which was not done in previous studies. The model assumes an average efficacy of 37 lm/W for an LED lamp and 70 lm/W for an LED luminaire in 2010, which is expected to increase to 182 lm/W and 193 lm/W, respectively, in 2020 and 203 lm/W for both product types in 2030.

The model assumes the price (in $/klm) for LED lamps will decrease from $55.16/klm in 2010 to $6.28/klm in 2020 and to $3.34/klm in 2030. For LED luminaires, price is expected to drop from $180.88/klm in 2010 to $23.69/klm in 2020 and to $12.73/klm in 2030.

The report noted that the best LED lamps and indoor luminaires have lifetimes in the 25,000-hour range, while outdoor luminaires have lifetimes of 50,000 hours. These lifetimes are expected to increase to 50,000 hours for LED lamps and indoor luminaires by approximately 2020, and to 75,000 for outdoor luminaires by approximately 2020, when both lifetime estimates hit a plateau.

The model of adoption rate of LED technology considers both first cost of LED lamps and luminaires as well as annual maintenance and operating cost, which together represent life-cycle cost.

By 2030, the energy-savings potential is greatest in the commercial sector, followed by the residential sector, which contribute 37% and 34% to the total energy savings. Outdoor stationary applications make up the next largest sector, at 25% and industrial makes up 4% of the total. A breakdown of forecasted savings in 2030 (Fig. 2) shows that the replacement of linear florescent lamps in commercial applications, HID in outdoor applications and incandescent bulbs in residential applications represent some of the most significant opportunities for energy savings from LED implementation.

High Brightness LED global consumption market forecast.

Global consumption of packaged High Brightness (HB) LEDs in 2011 was $10.77 billion, according to a newly released market survey by?ElectroniCast Consultants. The firm defines HB LEDs as those with a lumens/Watt rating of 30 to 70 lm/W.

The survey reviews the market in 2011 and forecasts what Electronicast believes will happen between 2012 and 2021. The full 887-page market forecast report, along with an extensive database is available for the fee of US$4,200.

In the year 2021, the worldwide consumption value is forecast to reach $69.7 billion. Market forecast data in this study report refers to consumption for a particular calendar year; therefore, this data is not cumulative data. Market data are segmented into the following geographic regions, plus a global summary: America (North, Central and South); EMEA (Europe, Middle Eastern countries, plus Africa); and APAC (Asia Pacific).

And the global HB-LED market is segmented into the following major application categories: Mobile and portable devices, signage and displays, solid-state and general lighting, stationary signals (non-vehicle), automotive/vehicle, consumer-level TV and desktop monitor backlighting, and other/miscellaneous (speciality, medical/science, test/measurement).

Market data for HB-LEDs are also segmented by the following colors (type): multiple-color multiple-chip packaged HB-LEDs; red, orange or yellow single color packaged HB-LED; blue, green, ultraviolet or ?other color? single color packaged HB-LEDs; and white packaged HB-LEDs.

Prices down ? sales up

Decreasing average selling prices is forecast to cause challenging growth patterns in consumption value in some application categories. Because of this, some application categories are forecast for declining consumption values in the second half of the forecast period (2016-2021); however, the sales volumes in all categories are forecast for positive growth throughout the forecast period.

Use of HB-LEDs in mobile and portable devices is forecast to remain a strong segment; however, OLEDs will continue to take market share. The sector is relatively mature and it already has a substantial consumption value in 2012. In terms of consumption value, the use of HB-LEDs in the Automotive/Vehicle category is forecast to multiply by a factor of more than 2-times from 2011 to 2016.

The use of HB-LEDs in stationary (non-vehicle) signals is forecast to increase at an average growth rate of only 5.5 percent from 2011 to 2016; consumption value of HB-LEDs in stationary signals is forecast to decline sharply due to offsetting price declines, as well as market saturation; however, in terms of volume, the segment is forecast for a slight increase during 2016-2021.

General lighting provides the main illumination of an area. In this study, ElectroniCast provides the consumption data for 2011 as well as its market forecast for 2012-2021 of the packaged HB-LEDs used for general lighting stationary applications, including interior and exterior decorative and functional lighting for residential, commercial and government areas.

LEDs are used in both functional and decorative light fixtures, with an advantage of energy savings. Compared to incandescent lighting, LED-based solid-state lighting delivers visible light with reduced heat. In addition, its solid-state nature provides for greater resistance to shock, vibration, and wear, thereby significantly increasing its lifespan.

The consumption value of HB-LEDs in the signage/professional display application is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 22.1 percent from 2011 to 2016 and then increase at an impressive 35.9 percent per year (2016-2021). Consumption of HB-LEDs in miscellaneous (non-specified) applications is forecast to reach $710 million in 2016, before decreasing during the second half of the forecast period (2016-2021).

The use of HB-LEDs in backlighting of consumer-level TV/desktop monitors is forecast to maintain a strong market share throughout the first half of the forecast period (to 2016), before slipping in market share during the second half of the forecast period (2016-2021), due to saturation in many markets as well as an increase in competition from OLEDs.

Also, the number of white packaged light emitting diodes require in the back lighting unit in the consumer-level LCD-TV and desktop monitor sector will decline, due to increased luminous efficacy and expected improvements in supporting optics (components and packaging).

Interview with Electronicast

High Brightness LED global market shares

optics.org Does Electronicast foresee a significant switch in both manufacture and consumption of HB LEDs from the West to the East i.e. from the Americas and Europe to SE Asia and the Far East?

Theresa Hosking, VP Marketing, ElectroniCast Consultants Consumption in the American region ? including South, Central and North America ? is forecast to expand in value from $3.88 billion in 2011 to $24.73 billion in 2021. The Europe, Middle East and African region held a 20.2 percent share of global HB-LED consumption value in 2011; EMEA?s relative market share is forecast to increase by 2021, as the region grows at the fastest pace between 2016-2021.

In 2011, the average selling price for HB-LEDs consumed in the American region was 9.6% higher than in the APAC region. In the EMEA region the ASPs, based on consumption, were 7.6% higher in 2011 than in the APAC region.

o.o. Do you expect further legal attempts by Western regulating and governmental agencies to protect the Western-based LED/OLED businesses?

Electronicast We did not forecast future legal attempts by the regulating and governmental agencies; however, we are projecting that one of the major market dynamics and drivers for the use of HB-LEDs will be the continued financial support, including subsidies and incentives, and energy efficiency legislation, regulations and standards by the regulating and governmental agencies, which tend to benefit LED-based illumination.

o.o. Can you comment on the value of your 10-year forecast in such a volatile market and global economy, considering: the likely emergence of LEDs / OLEDs with significantly higher efficiency and more stringent energy and recycling legislation.

Electronicast The length of time of the product planning cycle for an LED-based lighting product from the idea-stage (R&D) through the concept-stage (prototype) to the innovation (new product) can take up to seven years. Therefore five-year forecasts and 10-year forecasts, which quantify the consumption of such products, are vital for developers in the strategic planning process. Developing a product-line without the benefit of independent market projections is not acceptable in terms of best practices.

The future market for a particular type of HB-LED consumed in selected applications depends on a number of factors, including: user equipment demand, energy efficiency requirements and government regulations, future-proofing, the progress of the [wider] economy and investment community, product life cycles, and possible competing technologies.

ElectroniCast analysts forecast the growth rates in HB-LED quantity use in each application, along with price trends, based on competitive, economic and technology forecast trends, and apply these to derive long term forecasts. The concluding usage growth rate forecasts depend heavily on analysis of overall end user trends toward device usage and economic payback.

Fig. 1. Efficacy

A detailed report has been published recently by the US Department of Energy (DOE), which indicates an overall trend toward higher average system efficacy of installed lighting in the US from 45 lm/W in 2001 to 58 lm/W in 2010 (Fig. 1).This 29% boost in system efficacy is due mainly to the replacement of incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) in residential applications, and to the replacement of T12 fluorescent lamps with T8 and T5 fluorescent lamps in commercial and industrial sectors.

The efficacies of each of the sectors shows that residential is the sector most in need of improvement with an average efficacy of 19 lm/W, significantly below the other three sectors, which have average efficacies at or above 70 lm/W. The improvement in industrial and outdoor sector efficacies is attributed to a migration from mercury-vapor lamps to metal-halide lamps.

At the same time, new construction has led to an overall 14% increase in the total number of lamps installed in the US. The total number of lamps installed increased from 7 billion in 2001 to 8 billion in 2010, largely in the residential sector. The increased number reflects an increased number of residences but also a trend toward larger homes that require more lamps.

Fig. 2. Electricy usage

The?2010 US Lighting Market Characterization report states that lighting accounts for 700 TWh, or 19% of the country?s energy use (Fig. 2). The commercial sector consumes nearly half of the total (349 TWh), which is largely dominated by fluorescent lighting.Although the residential sector (175 TWh) contained far more installed lamps, most of them incandescent, these lamps experience less daily use, on average, than commercial-sector lamps.

It’s worth noting that LEDs barely register on the chart of total electricity consumption in Fig. 2.

To download a PDF of the full report, go to?www.ssl.energy.gov/tech_reports.html.

To allow for apples-to-apples economic comparison, the pricing and input power of the LED products had to be scaled proportionately to represent hypothetical products which could match light levels from the HPS fixtures. Energy used by three of the scaled-up LED systems ranged from 63-90% of the baseline HPS. The fourth product would actually require an increase in energy use by 15%. None of the products would represent cost-effective alternatives to HPS.

In response to recent industry developments, the study also investigated the relative significance of mesopic multipliers offered in the new IES Lighting Handbook and the lumen maintenance extrapolation methodology offered in the new IES TM-21.

This pilot project is the first in a series conducted by the DOE Municipal Solid-State Street Lighting Consortium, which serves as an objective resource for LED product evaluation and a repository for valuable field experience and data. The data generated from this project may be useful to standards groups, manufacturers, and those considering retrofits to LED.